Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 9.8¢ · $816 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$816.31

Combined PnL

$659.74

Smart Money Entry

4.9¢ → 9.8¢

+103% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$816.31

Total Shares3,578

Combined PnL+$659.74

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$146.83	$788.82	+$641.99	66% 1108-565 (1673)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$4.49	$17.5	+$13.01	44% 4031-5224 (9255)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$5	$9.6	+$4.6	38% 436-702 (1138)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.24	$0.38	+$0.14	46% 1569-1829 (3398)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$146.83

Value

$788.82

PnL

+$641.99

Record

66%

1108-565 (1673)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$13.01

Record

44%

4031-5224 (9255)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$4.6

Record

38%

436-702 (1138)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.3%

9.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$782.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

882.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.