Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 39% (278–434, n=712) · PM monthly #49 · holds 68 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$76.0K
Record
278W / 434L
Win Rate
39.0%
of 712 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2397
Source
PM monthly #49
Record (90 d)
1852/4132 · 45%
Trades
5,322
Markets
13,270
Volume
$980.6K
Top consensus positions
68 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 68 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $196 · now 71¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (74% of 45)
- Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes $187 · now 93¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?No $127 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $127 · now 62¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Yes $117 · now 3¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $108 · now 45¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes $99 · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?No $92 · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (50% of 14)
Specialties
1,361 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 61¢- Finance
+4 pts
side won 95% of 19 · avg entry 91¢
ROI 0%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 59% of 17 · avg entry 54¢
ROI −3%
- Tennis
+7 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 75¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 58% of 195 at an average 59¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 2% of 499)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 39% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 67% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 99% of 788)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.