Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 42% (425–584, n=1009) · PM monthly #576 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.0K
Record
425W / 584L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 1009 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2317
Source
PM monthly #576
Record (90 d)
3/16 · 19%
Trades
495
Markets
1,294
Volume
$245.9K
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 21 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No $11K · now 99¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (33% of 33)
- Will Radomir Saičić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes $2.9K · now 14¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $239 · now 10¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (90% of 49)
- Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes $100 · now 13¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $46 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $31 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $16 · now 3¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes $12 · now 2¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
851 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 41¢- Crypto
+26 pts
side won 35% of 20 · avg entry 9¢
ROI +20%
- NBA
+6 pts
side won 54% of 289 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +4%
- Soccer
+22 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +18%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 1% of 70 at an average 3¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 8% of 245)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 52% of 148)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 60% of 417)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 85% of 41)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.