Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (87%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tottenham finish in the top 6 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 14¢ · $53 held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$52.92

Combined PnL

$64.74

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.75

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$56.74

No1 trader

Total Value$21.16

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$8

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$23.88	$22.85	+$43.81	40% 1567-2381 (3948)
TimeTraveler<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$13.16	$21.16	+$8	41% 2125-3050 (5175)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$10.8	$8.1	+$13.2	64% 1050-593 (1643)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1.07	$0.8	-$0.27	77% 12686-3871 (16557)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.88

Value

$22.85

PnL

+$43.81

Record

40%

1567-2381 (3948)

TimeTraveler<$100

Invested

$13.16

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$8

Record

41%

2125-3050 (5175)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$13.2

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.27

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 87%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.