Will TSG Hoffenheim win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 98¢ · $306 held · ends Jun 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$306
$27.46
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DavidShekel | Noavg 93.7¢ | $278.1 | $271.56 | +$10.98 | 58% 574-408 (982) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $10.09 | $26.48 | +$16.39 | 41% 1299-1888 (3187) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $3.3 | $3.3 | +$0.16 | 56% 3080-2460 (5540) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $3.15 | $3.08 | -$0.07 | 56% 837-657 (1494) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.71 | $0.71 | -$0.01 | 43% 2055-2685 (4740) |
DavidShekelInvested
$278.1
Value
$271.56
PnL
+$10.98
Record
58%
574-408 (982)
Invested
$10.09
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$16.39
Record
41%
1299-1888 (3187)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0.16
Record
56%
3080-2460 (5540)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.08
PnL
-$0.07
Record
56%
837-657 (1494)
Invested
$0.71
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.01
Record
43%
2055-2685 (4740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.