Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 1.1¢ · $800 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$799.72
-$489.99
36¢ → 1.1¢
-97% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 59.1¢ | $468.02 | $727.82 | +$259.81 | 69% 1006-451 (1457) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $36.4 | $39.54 | +$3.12 | 96% 639-24 (663) |
 yen4uCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $752.04 | $21.09 | -$703.43 | 86% 833-136 (969) |
ME melganisCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.3¢ | $60.75 | $11.26 | -$49.49 | 75% 1600-543 (2143) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.