Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 90% (837–94, n=931) · PM monthly #815 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$78.5K
Record
837W / 94L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 931 settled
Batting Avg
48.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#236
Source
PM monthly #815
Trades
1,687
Markets
1,155
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 46 on the consensus side (87%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $57K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $29K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $17K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $14K · now 89¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Kash Patel out by December 31?No $13K · now 82¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (36% of 22)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $10K · now 84¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No $9.5K · now 83¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?No $8.0K · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (41% of 17)
Specialties
744 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 91¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 93% of 233 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 95% of 115 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 98% of 62 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 26% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 60% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 81% of 32)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 100% of 670)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.