Consensus PnL $93K · win rate 97% (681–21, n=702) · was PM monthly #491 · holds 77 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$92.6K
Record
681W / 21L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 702 settled
Batting Avg
92.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#115
Source
PM monthly #491
Trades
640
Markets
790
Volume
$8.4M
Top consensus positions
77 in listed consensus markets · 72 of 77 on the consensus side (94%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $96K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $66K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $63K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $61K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (68% of 32)
- Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?No $56K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $55K · now 96¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $53K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $52K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
Specialties
649 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 97¢- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 100% of 39 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 100% of 43 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 97% of 182 at an average 97¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 33% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 98% of 646)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.