Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 79% (1049–286, n=1335) · hand-picked wallet · holds 39 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.4K
Record
1049W / 286L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 1335 settled
Batting Avg
66.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#459
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
26,672
Markets
2,248
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
39 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 39 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?No $901 · now 88¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $722 · now 69¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Kash Patel out by December 31?No $588 · now 82¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (36% of 22)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $392 · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?No $388 · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $336 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $287 · now 96¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $264 · now 88¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
Specialties
1,692 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 76% of 659 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +3%
- Tech
+8 pts
side won 73% of 117 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 82% of 142 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 68% of 71 at an average 69¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 7% of 332)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 41% of 100)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 70% of 126)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 97% of 1134)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.