Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 5m?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $53 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$52.69
-$704.7
15.8¢ → 0.9¢
-94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $572.95 | $35.03 | -$538.32 | 36% 636-1125 (1761) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $14.38 | $14.38 | -$112.14 | 50% 7853-7908 (15761) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $57.04 | $3.25 | -$53.79 | 60% 7188-4753 (11941) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $0.48 | $0.03 | -$0.45 | 17% 221-1070 (1291) |
Invested
$572.95
Value
$35.03
PnL
-$538.32
Record
36%
636-1125 (1761)
Invested
$14.38
Value
$14.38
PnL
-$112.14
Record
50%
7853-7908 (15761)
Invested
$57.04
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$53.79
Record
60%
7188-4753 (11941)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.45
Record
17%
221-1070 (1291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.