Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 35% (177–323, n=500) · PM monthly #138 · holds 51 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.7K
Record
177W / 323L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 500 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2473
Source
PM monthly #138
Record (90 d)
1834/3966 · 46%
Trades
279
Markets
13,415
Volume
$909.9K
Top consensus positions
51 in listed consensus markets · 30 of 51 on the consensus side (59%)- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.1K · now 28¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Together win 9-11% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $573 · now 99¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes $491 · now 31¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?No $407 · now 34¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $355 · now 20¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?No $323 · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes $320 · now 19¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (56% of 16)
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 2?No $134 · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,344 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 61¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 48% of 21 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 71¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 66% of 174 at an average 66¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 2% of 495)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 35% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 84% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 99% of 787)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.