Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 19% (265–1151, n=1416) · PM monthly #110 · holds 32 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.1K
Record
265W / 1151L
Win Rate
19.0%
of 1416 settled
Batting Avg
23.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2603
Source
PM monthly #110
Record (90 d)
94/964 · 10%
Trades
392
Markets
1,625
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
32 in listed consensus markets · 27 of 32 on the consensus side (84%)- Will Trump and Putin not meet?No $262 · now 85¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No $199 · now 54¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (39% of 18)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $166 · now 91¢ · in at 86¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?No $86 · now 85¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?Yes $70 · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?No $55 · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 18)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $39 · now 11¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $11 · now 8¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
867 settled consensus markets · held side won 9% at an average entry of 14¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where VerilyWinningly's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 9% of 266 at an average 14¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 88%(won 1% of 761)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 45% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 63% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 91% of 53)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.