Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will William Hakansson win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.85

Combined PnL

-$17.61

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.85

Total Shares1,900

Combined PnL-$17.61

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$15.92	$2.04	-$12.32	26% 879-2469 (3348)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$6.04	$0.77	-$5.27	36% 266-463 (729)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	64% 1175-665 (1840)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.02	-$0.03	14% 9535-61062 (70597)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.92

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$12.32

Record

26%

879-2469 (3348)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.04

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$5.27

Record

36%

266-463 (729)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

64%

1175-665 (1840)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

14%

9535-61062 (70597)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.