Consensus PnL $7.4K · win rate 25% (145–434, n=579) · PM monthly #935 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.4K
Record
145W / 434L
Win Rate
25.0%
of 579 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1629
Source
PM monthly #935
Record (90 d)
28/77 · 36%
Trades
34
Markets
842
Volume
$164.9K
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Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 24 on the consensus side (79%)- Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2026-27 Hart Memorial Trophy?No $555 · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?No $389 · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will Player C be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?Yes $200 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?Yes $197 · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Erling Haaland (Man City) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?Yes $188 · now 69¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?Yes $151 · now 28¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will James Hagens win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?Yes $119 · now 8¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?Yes $62 · now 99¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
Specialties
185 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 44¢- Tennis
+14 pts
side won 72% of 90 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+22 pts
side won 63% of 19 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +7%
- MLB
+12 pts
side won 23% of 13 · avg entry 11¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 9% of 85)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 91% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 94% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 99% of 72)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.