Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.5K
$129.14
73.4¢ → 53¢
-28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $261.28 | $638.3 | +$377.02 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
ZX zxdw | Noavg 79.5¢ | $795.48 | $570 | -$250.48 | 82% 37-8 (45) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 56.8¢ | $210.78 | $211.45 | -$12.31 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $34 | $46.5 | +$12.5 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
SS ssddssdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $9.4 | $11.81 | +$2.41 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
Invested
$261.28
Value
$638.3
PnL
+$377.02
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$795.48
Value
$570
PnL
-$250.48
Record
82%
37-8 (45)
PippiTraderInvested
$210.78
Value
$211.45
PnL
-$12.31
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$34
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$2.41
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.