Consensus PnL $770K · win rate 69% (460–208, n=668) · PM monthly #28 · holds 67 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$770.4K
Record
460W / 208L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 668 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#780
Source
PM monthly #28
Trades
68
Markets
1,351
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
67 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 67 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $96K · now 45¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $63K · now 92¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $48K · now 93¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?Yes $28K · now 18¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?No $23K · now 88¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 23)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $17K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $16K · now 45¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?No $10K · now 99¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
511 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 62¢- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 69% of 483 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +34%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 61% of 28 at an average 61¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 11% of 117)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 55% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 67% of 69)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 94% of 283)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.