Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 60% (103–70, n=173) · PM monthly #988 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.7K
Record
103W / 70L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 173 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1171
Source
PM monthly #988
Trades
189
Markets
485
Volume
$285.4K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 18 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1?No $685 · now 100¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?No $375 · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in November?No $211 · now 53¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1?No $163 · now 100¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?No $160 · now 30¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?No $115 · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?No $101 · now 69¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?No $99 · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
Specialties
165 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 58¢- Finance
+23 pts
side won 87% of 89 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +15%
- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 63% of 76 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 14% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 68% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 100% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 100% of 79)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.