Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in November?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$3.4K
$822.16
52.5¢ → 66¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EgoVolae | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $2.7K | $3.2K | +$677.19 | — 6-7 (13) |
TE test456y78 | Yesavg 50¢ | $442.5 | $190.74 | +$140.83 | 18% 13-61 (74) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $18.2 | $23.1 | +$4.9 | 51% 92-89 (181) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $9.43 | $8.67 | -$0.76 | — 0-11 (11) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.