Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.4K
-$46.06
35.4¢ → 34¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PB pbshineCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $851.59 | $774.89 | -$76.7 | — 0-3 (3) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $350.44 | $412.08 | +$61.64 | 0% 0-145 (145) |
TE test456y78 | Noavg 56¢ | $206.64 | $180.81 | -$25.83 | 3% 2-56 (58) |
37 0x3764...c5eb<$100 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $52.68 | $46.46 | -$6.22 | — |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.55 | +$1.05 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$851.59
Value
$774.89
PnL
-$76.7
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$350.44
Value
$412.08
PnL
+$61.64
Record
0%
0-145 (145)
Invested
$206.64
Value
$180.81
PnL
-$25.83
Record
3%
2-56 (58)
Invested
$52.68
Value
$46.46
PnL
-$6.22
Record
—
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$1.05
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.