Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 87¢ · $6K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$6.4K
$444.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $5.7K | $6.1K | +$485.11 | — 7-2 (9) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $174.2 | $143.69 | -$30.52 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $125.71 | $125.71 | -$4.84 | 47% 2036-2280 (4316) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $56.53 | $51.6 | -$4.93 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$5,728.89
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$485.11
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$174.2
Value
$143.69
PnL
-$30.52
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
NadmiCTRInvested
$125.71
Value
$125.71
PnL
-$4.84
Record
47%
2036-2280 (4316)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$56.53
Value
$51.6
PnL
-$4.93
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.