Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Justina Mikulskyte, while the market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre (57%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Luanda: Justina Mikulskyte vs Tiphanie Lemaitre

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Justina Mikulskyte (29%) · Justina Mikulskyte at 43¢ · $542 held · ends Nov 11

Justina Mikulskyte43¢Tiphanie Lemaitre57¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Justina Mikulskyte

Consensus Traders

Justina Mikulskyte 29%

Total Value

$541.67

Combined PnL

-$6.73

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 42.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJustina Mikulskyte at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Justina Mikulskyte

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Justina Mikulskyte43%

Tiphanie Lemaitre57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Justina Mikulskyte2 traders

Total Value$217.19

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$3.56

Tiphanie Lemaitre5 traders

Total Value$324.48

Total Shares562

Combined PnL-$3.17

Justina Mikulskyte — 29%Tiphanie Lemaitre — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Justina Mikulskyteavg 43.2¢	$219.12	$215.48	-$3.64	46% 8424-9994 (18418)
38 38791873984189	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 58¢	$203.58	$201.83	-$1.75	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 58.7¢	$99.48	$98.33	-$1.15	50% 20843-21072 (41915)
3C 0x3ca9...424a<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.6	+$0	—
rayvanmechelen<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 59¢	$9.99	$9.83	-$0.17	73% 2438-885 (3323)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 60¢	$3	$2.9	-$0.1	52% 8633-7856 (16489)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Justina Mikulskyteavg 40¢	$1.63	$1.71	+$0.08	51% 24452-23135 (47587)

nigiri99CTR

Justina Mikulskyte

Invested

$219.12

Value

$215.48

PnL

-$3.64

Record

46%

8424-9994 (18418)

38791873984189

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$203.58

Value

$201.83

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$99.48

Value

$98.33

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

20843-21072 (41915)

0x3ca9...424a<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0

Record

—

rayvanmechelen<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

73%

2438-885 (3323)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Justina Mikulskyte

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

Research grade

NeutralJustina Mikulskyte at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Justina Mikulskyte

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Justina Mikulskyte wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.