WTA Finals, Group B: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Karolina Muchova (60%) · Karolina Muchova at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Karolina Muchova
5
Karolina Muchova 60%
$5.9K
$9.1
58.1¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKarolina Muchova at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Karolina Muchova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Elina Svitolinaavg 41.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$7.2 | 1% 3-200 (203) |
FL Flaznorp | Karolina Muchovaavg 58¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$0 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
SE sentrio | Karolina Muchovaavg 58¢ | $545.94 | $545.94 | -$0 | 31% 174-392 (566) |
 VeryLucky888 | Karolina Muchovaavg 58.9¢ | $311.82 | $273.77 | -$7.38 | 51% 251-244 (495) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Elina Svitolinaavg 36.8¢ | $65.39 | $74.67 | +$9.28 | 38% 209-339 (548) |
Invested
$2,621.16
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$7.2
Record
1%
3-200 (203)
Invested
$2,378.15
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$545.94
Value
$545.94
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
174-392 (566)
VeryLucky888Invested
$311.82
Value
$273.77
PnL
-$7.38
Record
51%
251-244 (495)
Invested
$65.39
Value
$74.67
PnL
+$9.28
Record
38%
209-339 (548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.