Chennai Open: Jeline Vandromme vs Kyoka Okamura
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jeline Vandromme (67%) · Jeline Vandromme at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Jeline Vandromme
6
Jeline Vandromme 67%
$2.2K
-$2.28
75.6¢ → 73.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJeline Vandromme at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Jeline Vandromme. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Jeline Vandrommeavg 75.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$36.35 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Kyoka Okamuraavg 24.1¢ | $451.93 | $496.51 | +$44.58 | 50% 4085-4020 (8105) |
 0xheavy888 | Jeline Vandrommeavg 73.4¢ | $205.64 | $205.8 | +$0.16 | 56% 7461-5982 (13443) |
38 38791873984189 | Jeline Vandrommeavg 78¢ | $156 | $147 | -$9 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Kyoka Okamuraavg 27¢ | $77.76 | $76.32 | -$1.44 | 49% 3236-3320 (6556) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jeline Vandrommeavg 75¢ | $11.25 | $11.1 | -$0.23 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,279.63
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$36.35
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$451.93
Value
$496.51
PnL
+$44.58
Record
50%
4085-4020 (8105)
0xheavy888Invested
$205.64
Value
$205.8
PnL
+$0.16
Record
56%
7461-5982 (13443)
Invested
$156
Value
$147
PnL
-$9
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Invested
$77.76
Value
$76.32
PnL
-$1.44
Record
49%
3236-3320 (6556)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.