Consensus PnL $132K · win rate 77% (1348–406, n=1754) · was PM monthly #799 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$131.7K
Record
1348W / 406L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 1754 settled
Batting Avg
64.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#509
Source
PM monthly #799
Trades
1,342
Markets
2,290
Volume
$8.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $393 · now 83¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (65% of 35)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $11 · now 43¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,618 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 71¢- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 91% of 1444 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +10%
- F1
+20 pts
side won 85% of 27 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +13%
- NFL
+13 pts
side won 56% of 36 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 53% of 70 at an average 55¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 46% of 164)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 72% of 161)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 89% of 243)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 97% of 1050)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.