Consensus PnL $225K · win rate 52% (829–780, n=1609) · PM monthly #245 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$225.3K
Record
829W / 780L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1609 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1617
Source
PM monthly #245
Trades
334
Markets
1,668
Volume
$16.2M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $53K · now 89¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $25K · now 30¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)Cowboys $13K · now 48¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (33% of 7)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?No $12K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (41% of 17)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.6K · now 31¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
825 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 51¢- MLB
+48 pts
side won 100% of 636 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
- College Football
+50 pts
side won 100% of 101 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- NFL
+49 pts
side won 100% of 48 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 100% of 304)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 99% of 509)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 75% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.