Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

91 of 113 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (81%) · Yes at 71¢ · $955K held · ends Nov 4

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

113

Yes 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$954.8K

Combined PnL

$35.3K

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 70.5¢

+9% since entry · 91 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 71%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

91 of 113 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$152.5K

Total Shares512,085

Combined PnL$-27.2K

Yes91 traders

Total Value$800.1K

Total Shares1,129,862

Combined PnL+$62.5K

No — 19%Yes — 81%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

91 traders

Top 2 hold 13%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

190 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 13% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 81% · 42

Aligned

sharpYes 88% · 40

Aligned

ctrYes 61% · 38

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 54

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 79

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO botbotCTR	Noavg 36.6¢	$81.7K	$66.9K	$-15.9K	43% 314-418 (732)
tourists	Yesavg 64.2¢	$53.9K	$59.6K	+$5.3K	66% 427-222 (649)
mr.ozi	Yesavg 63.6¢	$38.1K	$42.3K	+$4.2K	68% 1239-582 (1821)
DE defillama7	Yesavg 66.1¢	$33.5K	$35.7K	+$2.2K	60% 32-21 (53)
WordleAddict	Yesavg 62¢	$31.0K	$35.5K	+$4.3K	61% 941-614 (1555)
betwick	Yesavg 70¢	$35.0K	$35.5K	+$250	55% 352-292 (644)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Noavg 30.4¢	$36.5K	$35.4K	$-1.1K	43% 561-738 (1299)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 64.7¢	$27.2K	$29.7K	+$2.4K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
Kettle	Yesavg 65¢	$26.0K	$28.4K	+$2.2K	53% 241-218 (459)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 61¢	$22.3K	$25.7K	+$3.5K	58% 182-132 (314)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Noavg 37.4¢	$32.0K	$25.3K	$-6.7K	49% 783-802 (1585)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 71¢	$24.9K	$24.9K	-$175	58% 705-521 (1226)
8D 8DDD	Yesavg 70¢	$35.0K	$23.9K	+$524.71	53% 28-25 (53)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Yesavg 67.8¢	$22.6K	$22.4K	-$157.73	96% 328-13 (341)
PO poptree	Yesavg 71¢	$21.8K	$21.8K	-$153.75	70% 390-171 (561)
CA carlos484	Yesavg 71¢	$20.0K	$20.0K	-$140.82	61% 20-13 (33)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 71¢	$20.0K	$19.9K	-$140.84	47% 474-534 (1008)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 64¢	$17.9K	$19.7K	+$1.8K	61% 203-132 (335)
twinna	Yesavg 69.5¢	$17.9K	$17.8K	-$124.98	50% 92-93 (185)
scottilicious	Yesavg 62¢	$14.3K	$16.4K	+$2.0K	82% 945-201 (1146)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 67.6¢	$15.3K	$15.9K	+$650.94	38% 20-32 (52)
Dropper	Yesavg 64¢	$14.2K	$15.8K	+$1.4K	71% 1136-463 (1599)
Protruder	Yesavg 68¢	$14.7K	$15.4K	+$540.84	81% 22-5 (27)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 62¢	$12.4K	$14.1K	+$1.7K	63% 159-95 (254)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 62¢	$12.4K	$14.1K	+$1.7K	55% 7314-5881 (13195)

botbotCTR

Invested

$81,709.13

Value

$66.9K

PnL

$-15.9K

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

tourists

Yes

Invested

$53,920.96

Value

$59.6K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

mr.ozi

Yes

Invested

$38,148.96

Value

$42.3K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

defillama7

Yes

Invested

$33,508.4

Value

$35.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

60%

32-21 (53)

WordleAddict

Yes

Invested

$31,009.93

Value

$35.5K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

betwick

Yes

Invested

$34,999.97

Value

$35.5K

PnL

+$250

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

BreakTheBankCTR

Invested

$36,547.6

Value

$35.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$27,225.86

Value

$29.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$26,000

Value

$28.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$22,256.03

Value

$25.7K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Invested

$31,997.19

Value

$25.3K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

49%

783-802 (1585)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$24,850

Value

$24.9K

PnL

-$175

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

8DDD

Yes

Invested

$35,000

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$524.71

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Yes

Invested

$22,560.37

Value

$22.4K

PnL

-$157.73

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

poptree

Yes

Invested

$21,832.19

Value

$21.8K

PnL

-$153.75

Record

70%

390-171 (561)

carlos484

Yes

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$140.82

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$19,999.86

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$140.84

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$17,919.99

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$17,874.98

Value

$17.8K

PnL

-$124.98

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$14,284.68

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$15,292.29

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$650.94

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Dropper

Yes

Invested

$14,222.08

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

Protruder

Yes

Invested

$14,710.74

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$540.84

Record

81%

22-5 (27)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$12,400

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$12,399.95

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 71%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

91 of 113 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

91 traders

Top 2 hold 13%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

190 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 13% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 81% · 42

Aligned

sharpYes 88% · 40

Aligned

ctrYes 61% · 38

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 85% · 54

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 79

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.3%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.