Consensus PnL $3.7K · win rate 56% (283–224, n=507) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.7K
Record
283W / 224L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 507 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1396
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
217
Markets
529
Volume
$710.4K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $10K · now 75¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes $735 · now 56¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes $308 · now 86¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $224 · now 11¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?No $55 · now 54¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
493 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 56¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: MLB — held side won 54% of 284 at an average 55¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 23% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 37% of 100)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 58% of 275)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 90% of 78)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.