Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.3K
-$53.23
57.6¢ → 54.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Noavg 57.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$80.34 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
MA marchettamakerCTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $603.57 | $655.32 | +$51.75 | 28% 15-39 (54) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $162.32 | $136.19 | -$26.13 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
SI singularitymanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $63.07 | $70.07 | +$7 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $60 | $54.5 | -$5.5 | 56% 261-208 (469) |
ImJustKenInvested
$1,493.04
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$80.34
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
Invested
$603.57
Value
$655.32
PnL
+$51.75
Record
28%
15-39 (54)
Invested
$162.32
Value
$136.19
PnL
-$26.13
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$63.07
Value
$70.07
PnL
+$7
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
Invested
$60
Value
$54.5
PnL
-$5.5
Record
56%
261-208 (469)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.