Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 56¢ · $41K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$41.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 55.5¢

+5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares45,722

Combined PnL+$150.94

No8 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares37,072

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Yesavg 57.5¢	$6.2K	$9.4K	$-1.6K	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
eCashCTR	Noavg 44.2¢	$8.3K	$8.1K	-$44.97	68% 331-155 (486)
SC schizohedgehogCTR	Noavg 62¢	$9.9K	$7.0K	$-2.9K	80% 48-12 (60)
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 58.1¢	$6.1K	$5.7K	-$275.95	60% 314-210 (524)
aenews2	Yesavg 43.6¢	$3.4K	$4.3K	+$917.58	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 41.9¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$629.13	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
Nadmi	Yesavg 52.9¢	$925.93	$961.86	+$53.85	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
GUHHH	Yesavg 39.4¢	$538.87	$752.62	+$227.77	78% 879-250 (1129)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Yesavg 37.6¢	$530.06	$735.76	+$205.7	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998	Yesavg 54.3¢	$712.96	$735.17	+$22.21	56% 261-208 (469)
Nostdam	Yesavg 55.4¢	$656.32	$668.77	+$12.46	54% 1434-1230 (2664)
0x8712CTR	Noavg 41¢	$410	$430	+$30	30% 102-237 (339)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 50¢	$183.88	$188.98	+$5.1	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 44¢	$109.42	$107.06	-$2.37	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Noavg 21.4¢	$36.14	$74.73	+$38.6	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
ME melganis<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$75	$54.98	-$19	75% 1597-541 (2138)
tetraseCTR<$100	Noavg 65.3¢	$11.85	$12.9	+$1.05	61% 839-544 (1383)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.35	$4.98	+$5.07	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$0.71	$0.79	+$0.08	39% 175-269 (444)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Yes

Invested

$6,214.24

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

eCashCTR

Invested

$8,347.79

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$44.97

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

schizohedgehogCTR

Invested

$9,945.08

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$6,066.76

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$275.95

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$3,355.84

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$917.58

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$1,191.25

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$629.13

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Nadmi

Yes

Invested

$925.93

Value

$961.86

PnL

+$53.85

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

GUHHH

Yes

Invested

$538.87

Value

$752.62

PnL

+$227.77

Record

78%

879-250 (1129)

BikesAreTheBikes

Yes

Invested

$530.06

Value

$735.76

PnL

+$205.7

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998

Yes

Invested

$712.96

Value

$735.17

PnL

+$22.21

Record

56%

261-208 (469)

Nostdam

Yes

Invested

$656.32

Value

$668.77

PnL

+$12.46

Record

54%

1434-1230 (2664)

0x8712CTR

Invested

$410

Value

$430

PnL

+$30

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$183.88

Value

$188.98

PnL

+$5.1

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$109.42

Value

$107.06

PnL

-$2.37

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Invested

$36.14

Value

$74.73

PnL

+$38.6

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

melganis<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$54.98

PnL

-$19

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

tetraseCTR<$100

Invested

$11.85

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$1.05

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$5.07

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.08

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

286 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.