Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 14¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$194.82
34.8¢ → 14¢
-60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
167h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998 | Yesavg 51¢ | $204 | $308 | +$114 | 56% 261-208 (469) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 54¢ | $139.84 | $199.4 | +$66.03 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 Optimus-CTR | Noavg 31.5¢ | $318 | $181.73 | -$116.07 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $380 | $180 | -$225 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $156.78 | $138.09 | -$18.69 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.4¢ | $84.37 | $105.74 | +$36.39 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.4¢ | $79.71 | $32.35 | -$55.09 | |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $60.53 | $26.75 | -$33.78 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
Invested
$204
Value
$308
PnL
+$114
Record
56%
261-208 (469)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$139.84
Value
$199.4
PnL
+$66.03
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$318
Value
$181.73
PnL
-$116.07
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
Invested
$380
Value
$180
PnL
-$225
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
Invested
$156.78
Value
$138.09
PnL
-$18.69
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.53
Value
$26.75
PnL
-$33.78
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.