Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 55% (148–119, n=267) · was PM monthly #886 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.9K
Record
148W / 119L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 267 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1460
Source
PM monthly #886
Trades
29
Markets
274
Volume
$439.8K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $26 · now 6¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $23 · now 23¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
198 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 57¢- Esports
+20 pts
side won 79% of 96 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +18%
- Tennis
+22 pts
side won 81% of 43 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +20%
- MLB
+22 pts
side won 79% of 14 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 69% of 16 at an average 69¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 27% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 75% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 73% of 104)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 93% of 43)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.