Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 94¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 29

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 94.2¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,502

Combined PnL-$59.14

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares70,612

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 95.9¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$83.87	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.5K	39% 397-627 (1024)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 95.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10.51	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.22	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$352.75	$717.79	+$384.31	54% 399-345 (744)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$160	$292.5	+$132.5	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
0X 0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$14.35	$24.91	+$11.65	54% 133-112 (245)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$4,327.78

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$83.87

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,628.39

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$1,715.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$10.51

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

ghorrock

Invested

$1,075.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.22

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.75

Value

$717.79

PnL

+$384.31

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$292.5

PnL

+$132.5

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.35

Value

$24.91

PnL

+$11.65

Record

54%

133-112 (245)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

22 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.