Consensus PnL -$10K · win rate 48% (149–159, n=308) · was PM monthly #993 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-10.3K
Record
149W / 159L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 308 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2127
Source
PM monthly #993
Record (90 d)
151/185 · 82%
Trades
196
Markets
322
Volume
$438.7K
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Specialties
185 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+45 pts
side won 96% of 25 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +47%
- Esports
+37 pts
side won 89% of 61 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +33%
- Tennis
+26 pts
side won 82% of 55 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +23%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 40% of 15 at an average 44¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 42% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 66% of 65)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 94% of 88)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 20)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.