Consensus PnL -$61K · win rate 21% (25–92, n=117) · PM monthly #130 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-61.2K
Record
25W / 92L
Win Rate
21.0%
of 117 settled
Batting Avg
88.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1651
Source
PM monthly #130
Record (90 d)
11/65 · 17%
Trades
596
Markets
142
Volume
$106.9K
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $2.2K · now 20¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes $39 · now 1¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $9 · now 45¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (76% of 55)
Specialties
91 settled consensus markets · held side won 18% at an average entry of 17¢- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 14% of 28 · avg entry 12¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 12% of 51 at an average 14¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 81%(won 8% of 74)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 50% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 50% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.