Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 64% (1607–887, n=2494) · was PM monthly #992 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.2K
Record
1607W / 887L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 2494 settled
Batting Avg
40.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#965
Source
PM monthly #992
Trades
4,898
Markets
14,327
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETUp $181 · now 50¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETUp $160 · now 100¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETDown $41 · now 52¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
1,180 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 60¢- Crypto
+8 pts
side won 68% of 1180 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 3% of 202)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 37% of 174)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 76% of 265)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 98% of 539)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.