Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 13 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$946.46

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,555

Combined PnL+$761.73

Up10 traders

Total Value$624.44

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$184.73

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 43.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$56.25	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 37.9¢	$617.13	$1.2K	+$593.93	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 42.1¢	$982.85	$1.1K	+$73.35	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
pspspsps5CTR	Downavg 34¢	$76.17	$256.28	+$180.11	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 85.4¢	$289.99	$221.51	-$65.27	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 55¢	$107.78	$195.86	+$88.08	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 23.6¢	$67.7	$160.46	+$92.77	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 56.7¢	$169.9	$140.84	-$29.06	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
LI Little-bigCTR	Downavg 44.2¢	$110.74	$124.09	+$13.35	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Downavg 89¢	$120.15	$119.48	-$0.68	52% 804-728 (1532)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 94.2¢	$108.79	$87.12	-$21.67	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 85.3¢	$54	$55.41	+$1.41	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$31.68	$31.84	+$0.16	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$32.86	$29.75	-$3.11	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
Atomforge<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$17.76	$24.11	+$6.35	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$9.61	$20.99	+$11.38	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$5.05	$14.79	+$9.74	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$60.34	$12.21	-$48.13	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 26¢	$10.4	$5	-$5.4	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.43	+$0.27	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
PA Parad0X<$100	Upavg 55¢	$4.48	$4.11	-$0.37	56% 2301-1795 (4096)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$2.45	$3.38	+$0.92	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$8.13	$0.2	-$7.93	59% 62677-43754 (106431)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,558.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$56.25

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$617.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$593.93

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$982.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$73.35

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

pspspsps5CTR

Down

Invested

$76.17

Value

$256.28

PnL

+$180.11

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$289.99

Value

$221.51

PnL

-$65.27

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$107.78

Value

$195.86

PnL

+$88.08

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$67.7

Value

$160.46

PnL

+$92.77

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$169.9

Value

$140.84

PnL

-$29.06

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

Little-bigCTR

Down

Invested

$110.74

Value

$124.09

PnL

+$13.35

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

seeeeeebCTR

Down

Invested

$120.15

Value

$119.48

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

804-728 (1532)

asdaefef

Invested

$108.79

Value

$87.12

PnL

-$21.67

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$55.41

PnL

+$1.41

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$31.84

PnL

+$0.16

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$32.86

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$3.11

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Atomforge<$100

Invested

$17.76

Value

$24.11

PnL

+$6.35

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$20.99

PnL

+$11.38

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$14.79

PnL

+$9.74

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.34

Value

$12.21

PnL

-$48.13

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.4

Value

PnL

-$5.4

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.27

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

Parad0X<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.37

Record

56%

2301-1795 (4096)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.92

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.13

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$7.93

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 23 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.