Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (50%). 0 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Up50¢Down50¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$254.06

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 50¢

-6% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Up 50%)15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up50%

Down50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL+$14.64

Down17 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL+$239.42

Up — 23%Down — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 42.9¢	$834.76	$834.71	-$0.06	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 49.8¢	$538.48	$625.86	+$87.37	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 74.9¢	$335.59	$367.25	+$31.66	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
machinelearned	Downavg 41.9¢	$187	$330.16	+$143.16	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 31.6¢	$179.89	$181.21	+$4.46	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
pspspsps5	Downavg 33.6¢	$64.94	$140.68	+$75.74	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
BoneOhio	Downavg 56.1¢	$204	$107.28	-$96.72	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$42.92	$53.08	+$10.16	59% 7083-4987 (12070)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$36.42	$43	+$6.58	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$51.43	$42.91	-$8.53	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 40¢	$31.21	$41.68	+$10.46	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$46.14	$38.15	-$8	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$33.85	$28.93	-$4.92	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$18.9	$23.9	+$5	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 73.7¢	$19.83	$17.89	-$1.94	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 69.6¢	$13.62	$13.01	-$0.61	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$11.81	$12.78	+$0.97	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 82.5¢	$11.6	$10	-$1.6	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$5.2	$9.9	+$4.7	51% 20375-19462 (39837)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$6.69	$7.35	+$0.66	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$12.91	$7.19	-$5.72	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 57¢	$5.54	$6.76	+$1.22	64% 24882-13745 (38627)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$834.76

Value

$834.71

PnL

-$0.06

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$538.48

Value

$625.86

PnL

+$87.37

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$335.59

Value

$367.25

PnL

+$31.66

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$187

Value

$330.16

PnL

+$143.16

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$179.89

Value

$181.21

PnL

+$4.46

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$64.94

Value

$140.68

PnL

+$75.74

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$204

Value

$107.28

PnL

-$96.72

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$42.92

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$10.16

Record

59%

7083-4987 (12070)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$36.42

Value

$43

PnL

+$6.58

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$51.43

Value

$42.91

PnL

-$8.53

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$31.21

Value

$41.68

PnL

+$10.46

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$46.14

Value

$38.15

PnL

-$8

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$28.93

PnL

-$4.92

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$18.9

Value

$23.9

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$19.83

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$1.94

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$13.62

Value

$13.01

PnL

-$0.61

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$11.81

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$0.97

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.6

Value

$10

PnL

-$1.6

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.66

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$12.91

Value

$7.19

PnL

-$5.72

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$5.54

Value

$6.76

PnL

+$1.22

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Up 50%)15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.