Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$274.2

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,630

Combined PnL+$172.46

Up9 traders

Total Value$111.67

Total Shares1,892

Combined PnL-$446.66

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 54.7¢	$342.57	$355.18	+$12.61	50% 5585-5650 (11235)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 42.5¢	$175.69	$300.32	+$124.63	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 45.1¢	$149.28	$157.32	+$8.03	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$154.49	$155.27	+$0.78	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73¢	$135.35	$153.83	+$18.49	60% 12586-8357 (20943)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$88.63	$77.02	-$11.61	35% 19121-36132 (55253)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 27¢	$128.61	$71.1	-$57.51	55% 8967-7399 (16366)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.7¢	$31.22	$36.85	+$5.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$97.39	$34.25	-$63.14
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96.1¢	$67.09	$69.48	+$2.39	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$60.04	$68.41	+$8.37	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$55.15	$64.5	+$9.35	55% 7793-6374 (14167)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$39.27	$41.69	+$2.42	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 20.1¢	$38.19	$18.02	-$20.17	46% 38677-45770 (84447)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 26.3¢	$14.06	$15.73	+$1.67	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 46¢	$9.2	$10.3	+$1.1	55% 24178-19509 (43687)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 61¢	$6.1	$10	+$3.9	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$6.6	$7.95	+$1.35	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$3.96	$4.37	+$0.41	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$3.05	$3.37	+$0.31	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$5.25	$2.78	-$2.47	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.18	+$0.07	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.8¢	$37.91	$0.39	-$37.51	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 57.6¢	$398.67	$0.35	-$398.32	58% 38498-27579 (66077)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$342.57

Value

$355.18

PnL

+$12.61

Record

50%

5585-5650 (11235)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$175.69

Value

$300.32

PnL

+$124.63

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$149.28

Value

$157.32

PnL

+$8.03

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$154.49

Value

$155.27

PnL

+$0.78

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$135.35

Value

$153.83

PnL

+$18.49

Record

60%

12586-8357 (20943)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$88.63

Value

$77.02

PnL

-$11.61

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$128.61

Value

$71.1

PnL

-$57.51

Record

55%

8967-7399 (16366)

Both legs:

Down$31.2276.7¢+$5.63

Up$97.3927¢-$63.14

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$67.09

Value

$69.48

PnL

+$2.39

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$60.04

Value

$68.41

PnL

+$8.37

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$55.15

Value

$64.5

PnL

+$9.35

Record

55%

7793-6374 (14167)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$39.27

Value

$41.69

PnL

+$2.42

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$38.19

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$20.17

Record

46%

38677-45770 (84447)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$14.06

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$1.67

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

24178-19509 (43687)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$6.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.9

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$1.35

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.41

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.31

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$2.47

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$37.91

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$37.51

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$398.67

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$398.32

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.