Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 44% (9885–12339, n=22224) · PM monthly #209 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.0K
Record
9885W / 12339L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 22224 settled
Batting Avg
34.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2000
Source
PM monthly #209
Trades
5,264
Markets
147,443
Volume
$63.2M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2PM ETDown $1.7K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1PM ETDown $1.3K · now 100¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (86% of 8)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ETDown $1.3K · now 93¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1PM ETDown $971 · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (83% of 7)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 2PM ETDown $455 · now 85¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETDown $106 · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (65% of 20)
Specialties
85,003 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 63¢- Crypto
+37 pts
side won 100% of 85003 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 3717)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 13530)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 100% of 36904)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 100% of 30852)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.