Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2PM ET

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$635.35

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,222

Combined PnL+$632.42

Up2 traders

Total Value$45.17

Total Shares338

Combined PnL+$2.92

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 90.6¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$55.68	64% 58907-33468 (92375)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.2¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$419.74	67% 99930-48308 (148238)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 67.3¢	$624.32	$680.86	+$56.54	57% 6774-5010 (11784)
AN Anon455	Downavg 81¢	$563.39	$643.85	+$80.46	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
HS Hsilverbasher	Downavg 83.4¢	$503.91	$603.59	+$68.89	12% 18332-133022 (151354)
AL almach	Downavg 85.2¢	$136.24	$148.4	+$12.16	55% 48791-40333 (89124)
MO mo-money	Downavg 80¢	$126.2	$146.33	+$20.13	55% 50878-41468 (92346)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$81.62	$91.95	+$10.33	55% 50153-40327 (90480)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$54.35	$73.2	+$18.86	51% 8411-7930 (16341)
DU DubaiitalyCTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$41.4	$44.85	+$3.45	49% 183-192 (375)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$22.65	$23.65	+$1	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$15.3	$0.32	-$0.53	51% 20375-19462 (39837)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$2,764.86

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$55.68

Record

64%

58907-33468 (92375)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,583.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$419.74

Record

67%

99930-48308 (148238)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$624.32

Value

$680.86

PnL

+$56.54

Record

57%

6774-5010 (11784)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$563.39

Value

$643.85

PnL

+$80.46

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Hsilverbasher

Down

Invested

$503.91

Value

$603.59

PnL

+$68.89

Record

12%

18332-133022 (151354)

almach

Down

Invested

$136.24

Value

$148.4

PnL

+$12.16

Record

55%

48791-40333 (89124)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$126.2

Value

$146.33

PnL

+$20.13

Record

55%

50878-41468 (92346)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$81.62

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$10.33

Record

55%

50153-40327 (90480)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$54.35

Value

$73.2

PnL

+$18.86

Record

51%

8411-7930 (16341)

DubaiitalyCTR<$100

Invested

$41.4

Value

$44.85

PnL

+$3.45

Record

49%

183-192 (375)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$22.65

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.53

Record

51%

20375-19462 (39837)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.