Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Down (65%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$119.96

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,801

Combined PnL+$144.92

Up7 traders

Total Value$245.7

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$24.96

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 78.1¢	$996.33	$1.1K	+$115.82	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 76.2¢	$207.6	$192.55	-$15.05	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 53¢	$112.68	$108.32	-$4.36	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 96.5¢	$104.99	$106.3	+$1.3	67% 99930-48308 (148238)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 87¢	$60.5	$60.28	+$0.03	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$62.25	$60.06	-$2.2	73% 95065-35699 (130764)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$42.94	$59	+$16.06	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
GO GoodRecipient<$100	Downavg 86¢	$54.2	$43.6	-$10.6	43% 656-861 (1517)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$37.68	$42.03	+$4.35	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 60¢	$25.8	$41.48	+$15.68	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$35.98	$37.29	+$1.31	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$31.65	$34.7	+$3.05	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 75.5¢	$22.65	$29.99	+$7.34	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$40.04	$28.28	-$11.76	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$19.25	$19.57	+$0.32	58% 51349-37471 (88820)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 81.6¢	$15.5	$18.33	+$2.83	68% 1708-799 (2507)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 64.3¢	$17.51	$16.2	-$1.3	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 60¢	$6	$8.8	+$2.8	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$7.28	$7.07	-$0.21	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$11.65	$6.2	-$5.45	64% 40639-23326 (63965)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$996.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$115.82

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$207.6

Value

$192.55

PnL

-$15.05

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

tmsd-testCTR

Invested

$112.68

Value

$108.32

PnL

-$4.36

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$104.99

Value

$106.3

PnL

+$1.3

Record

67%

99930-48308 (148238)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$60.5

Value

$60.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR<$100

Invested

$62.25

Value

$60.06

PnL

-$2.2

Record

73%

95065-35699 (130764)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$42.94

Value

$59

PnL

+$16.06

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

GoodRecipient<$100

Down

Invested

$54.2

Value

$43.6

PnL

-$10.6

Record

43%

656-861 (1517)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$37.68

Value

$42.03

PnL

+$4.35

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$25.8

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$15.68

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$35.98

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$1.31

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$31.65

Value

$34.7

PnL

+$3.05

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$22.65

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$7.34

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$40.04

Value

$28.28

PnL

-$11.76

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.57

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

51349-37471 (88820)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.5

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$2.83

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$17.51

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$2.8

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.07

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$11.65

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$5.45

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 20 top traders (65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.