Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Down
8
Down 75%
$6.3K
$167.88
83.6¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$33.33 | 67% 99930-48308 (148238) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 94.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$31.56 | 12% 18332-133022 (151354) |
AN Anon455 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $949.8 | $736.23 | -$213.57 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
 justdanceCTR | Upavg 24.1¢ | $281.64 | $577.91 | +$296.28 | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 88.1¢ | $387.3 | $425.05 | +$37.75 | 55% 50878-41468 (92346) |
AL almach | Downavg 78¢ | $16.67 | $413.16 | +$31.6 | 55% 48791-40333 (89124) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $96 | $99 | +$3 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $83.35 | $97.94 | +$14.6 | 55% 50153-40327 (90480) |
Invested
$2,704.01
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$33.33
Record
67%
99930-48308 (148238)
Invested
$1,249.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$31.56
Record
12%
18332-133022 (151354)
Invested
$949.8
Value
$736.23
PnL
-$213.57
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
justdanceCTRInvested
$281.64
Value
$577.91
PnL
+$296.28
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
Invested
$387.3
Value
$425.05
PnL
+$37.75
Record
55%
50878-41468 (92346)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$413.16
PnL
+$31.6
Record
55%
48791-40333 (89124)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$96
Value
$99
PnL
+$3
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
Invested
$83.35
Value
$97.94
PnL
+$14.6
Record
55%
50153-40327 (90480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.