Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 35% (139–253, n=392) · was PM monthly #863 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-20.4K
Record
139W / 253L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 392 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2152
Source
PM monthly #863
Trades
166
Markets
448
Volume
$940.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Celtics vs. MagicMagic $776 · now 31¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Celtics)
Specialties
305 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 38¢- Esports
+38 pts
side won 69% of 32 · avg entry 31¢
ROI +55%
- NBA
+18 pts
side won 58% of 62 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +10%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 50% of 139 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 32% of 47 at an average 40¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 35% of 82)
- 30–50¢: 60%(won 54% of 184)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 72% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.