Consensus PnL -$3.9K · win rate 52% (352–326, n=678) · PM monthly #943 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-3.9K
Record
352W / 326L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 678 settled
Batting Avg
90.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1765
Source
PM monthly #943
Record (90 d)
168/174 · 97%
Trades
1,319
Markets
716
Volume
$337.1K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur GeaArthur Gea $1.8K · now 0¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Jan-Lennard Struff)
Specialties
333 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 53¢- Tennis
+44 pts
side won 96% of 276 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +44%
- College Football
+45 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +46%
- Soccer
+44 pts
side won 100% of 13 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 83% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 97% of 94)
- 50–70¢: 64%(won 98% of 213)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.