Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arthur Gea, while the market favors Jan-Lennard Struff (54%). 10 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rolex Paris Masters: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Arthur Gea

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Gea (48%) · Arthur Gea at 47¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 10

Jan-Lennard Struff54¢Arthur Gea46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arthur Gea

Consensus Traders

Arthur Gea 48%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

-$456.21

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 46.5¢

-18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralArthur Gea at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Gea

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Jan-Lennard Struff 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jan-Lennard Struff54%

Arthur Gea47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Gea10 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares23,435

Combined PnL-$503.48

Jan-Lennard Struff11 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares16,051

Combined PnL+$47.27

Arthur Gea — 48%Jan-Lennard Struff — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Arthur Geaavg 57.2¢	$7.2K	$6.9K	-$216.5	38% 519-831 (1350)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 45¢	$3.7K	$4.0K	+$288.7	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 45¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$365.73
└ Arthur Gea leg	Arthur Geaavg 53.3¢	$964.08	$887.05	-$77.03
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44.9¢	$5.7K	$3.7K	+$124.65	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$21.49
└ Arthur Gea leg	Arthur Geaavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$146.15
RN1	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44.4¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$10.59	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
0X 0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792CTR	Arthur Geaavg 56.2¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$186.15	45% 263-319 (582)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$25	50% 512-509 (1021)
0X 0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR	Arthur Geaavg 57.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$59.25	42% 294-400 (694)
SH shawCTR	Arthur Geaavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$39.84	53% 2311-2071 (4382)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 45¢	$1.1K	$989.14	+$72.82	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 45¢	$600.29	$679.87	+$81.53
└ Arthur Gea leg	Arthur Geaavg 51.4¢	$324.16	$309.27	-$8.71
nigiri99	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 49.2¢	$573.74	$547.55	-$26.19	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
NO NotJump	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44¢	$440.18	$479.99	+$39.81	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 48¢	$293.88	$287.75	-$3.06	51% 216-209 (425)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44¢	$224.24	$229.62	+$5.39	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44¢	$174.24	$176.22	+$1.98
└ Arthur Gea leg	Arthur Geaavg 52¢	$50	$53.4	+$3.41
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Arthur Geaavg 52¢	$208	$208	-$0	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
AN AnonymousUsername	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 47¢	$184.09	$184.09	+$1.96	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Arthur Geaavg 54.3¢	$106.23	$101.65	-$4.58	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 51¢	$69.01	$69.01	+$0	52% 702-642 (1344)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Arthur Geaavg 48¢	$49.92	$54.08	+$4.68	53% 4649-4137 (8786)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Arthur Geaavg 55.2¢	$35.08	$33.02	-$2.06	50% 4085-4060 (8145)
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 46.2¢	$30.15	$29.01	-$1.13	44% 103-130 (233)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Arthur Geaavg 55.2¢	$17.13	$16.12	-$1.01	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 44¢	$14.39	$14.71	+$0.33	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Arthur Geaavg 48¢	$12.96	$14.04	+$1.22	58% 30476-22265 (52741)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 47¢	$5.3	$5.3	+$0	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.03	52% 8455-7711 (16166)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$7,154

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$216.5

Record

38%

519-831 (1350)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$3,728.06

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$288.7

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$2,763.9845¢+$365.73

Arthur Gea$964.0853.3¢-$77.03

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$5,749.46

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$124.65

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$2,273.0744.9¢-$21.49

Arthur Gea$1,355.5452.6¢+$146.15

RN1

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$3,385.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$10.59

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

0xe98c6194374418b1d1b27321f025bd64ac2c8792CTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$2,470.43

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$186.15

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$2,199.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25

Record

50%

512-509 (1021)

0xdeff55f3132a313985035c34539e94da7b9178f8CTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$1,957.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$59.25

Record

42%

294-400 (694)

shawCTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$1,316.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$39.84

Record

53%

2311-2071 (4382)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$1,113.14

Value

$989.14

PnL

+$72.82

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$600.2945¢+$81.53

Arthur Gea$324.1651.4¢-$8.71

nigiri99

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$573.74

Value

$547.55

PnL

-$26.19

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

NotJump

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$440.18

Value

$479.99

PnL

+$39.81

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72fe

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$293.88

Value

$287.75

PnL

-$3.06

Record

51%

216-209 (425)

EulhunterARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$224.24

Value

$229.62

PnL

+$5.39

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$174.2444¢+$1.98

Arthur Gea$5052¢+$3.41

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$208

Value

$208

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

AnonymousUsername

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$184.09

Value

$184.09

PnL

+$1.96

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Arthur Gea

Invested

$106.23

Value

$101.65

PnL

-$4.58

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

1lovejump<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$69.01

Value

$69.01

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Arthur Gea

Invested

$49.92

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$4.68

Record

53%

4649-4137 (8786)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Arthur Gea

Invested

$35.08

Value

$33.02

PnL

-$2.06

Record

50%

4085-4060 (8145)

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$30.15

Value

$29.01

PnL

-$1.13

Record

44%

103-130 (233)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Arthur Gea

Invested

$17.13

Value

$16.12

PnL

-$1.01

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$14.39

Value

$14.71

PnL

+$0.33

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Arthur Gea

Invested

$12.96

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$1.22

Record

58%

30476-22265 (52741)

Lilybaeum<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8455-7711 (16166)

Research grade

NeutralArthur Gea at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Gea

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Jan-Lennard Struff 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Gea wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.