Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 96¢ · $79K held · ends Dec 1

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$78.7K

Combined PnL

$954.05

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 96.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$74.8K

Total Shares78,002

Combined PnL+$3.3K

No4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares73,056

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Yesavg 89.8¢	$59.2K	$62.3K	+$3.2K	52% 2745-2563 (5308)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7	Yesavg 95¢	$8.7K	$5.6K	+$104.72	46% 466-545 (1011)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Yesavg 92.5¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$110	55% 803-666 (1469)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$4.6K	$2.7K	$-1.9K	65% 2644-1393 (4037)
NE Next-Licensing	Yesavg 97.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$50.65	99% 2461-33 (2494)
bitterfishCTR	Noavg 6.8¢	$1.3K	$951.46	-$328.26	65% 336-184 (520)
TO TokorCTR	Noavg 8.1¢	$229.28	$131.62	-$97.66	62% 816-507 (1323)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Noavg 8.5¢	$201.74	$118.15	-$83.58	59% 2385-1628 (4013)
RI Rin2x<$100	Yesavg 94¢	$50	$47.68	+$0.68	86% 2183-347 (2530)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 96.5¢	$11.3	$13.93	+$2.63	48% 9289-10165 (19454)

justdance

Yes

Invested

$59,170.15

Value

$62.3K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

52%

2745-2563 (5308)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7

Yes

Invested

$8,689.48

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$104.72

Record

46%

466-545 (1011)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Yes

Invested

$4,067.8

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$110

Record

55%

803-666 (1469)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$4,591.87

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

65%

2644-1393 (4037)

Next-Licensing

Yes

Invested

$2,737.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$50.65

Record

99%

2461-33 (2494)

bitterfishCTR

Invested

$1,279.71

Value

$951.46

PnL

-$328.26

Record

65%

336-184 (520)

TokorCTR

Invested

$229.28

Value

$131.62

PnL

-$97.66

Record

62%

816-507 (1323)

0xDB5CTR

Invested

$201.74

Value

$118.15

PnL

-$83.58

Record

59%

2385-1628 (4013)

Rin2x<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0.68

Record

86%

2183-347 (2530)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.3

Value

$13.93

PnL

+$2.63

Record

48%

9289-10165 (19454)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.