Consensus PnL $41K · win rate 43% (2403–3237, n=5640) · was PM monthly #94 · holds 46 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$41.0K
Record
2403W / 3237L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 5640 settled
Batting Avg
30.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2267
Source
PM monthly #94
Record (90 d)
2084/3792 · 55%
Trades
39,969
Markets
14,383
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 46 on the consensus side (96%)- Will the CPN-UML candidate win the 2027 Kathmandu mayoral election?No $62 · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by January 31, 2027?No $29 · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No $18 · now 93¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $3 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 15)
- Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 32)
- Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 33)
- Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 33)
Specialties
2,127 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 71% of 21 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 63% of 414 at an average 64¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 1% of 708)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 50% of 76)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 61% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 96% of 1238)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.