Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $30 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$29.65

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

4.1¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$29.65

Total Shares59,307

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

206h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$620.33	$7.44	-$612.89	73% 11108-4104 (15212)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$541.66	$6.5	-$535.16	18% 49-220 (269)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$407.46	$4.89	-$402.57	60% 7190-4757 (11947)
VI VictorLudorumCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$329.66	$3.66	-$301.95	54% 6086-5288 (11374)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$249.02	$2.99	-$246.03	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$97.71	$1.62	-$96.09	56% 3078-2437 (5515)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$82.3	$0.99	-$81.31	79% 10651-2799 (13450)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$64.04	$0.77	-$63.27	17% 1028-5005 (6033)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$46.14	$0.55	-$45.59	43% 3610-4769 (8379)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$4.5	$0.16	-$13.34	44% 4040-5234 (9274)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$6.29	$0.08	-$6.22	17% 221-1072 (1293)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$0.42	$0.01	-$0.41	48% 9289-10165 (19454)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$620.33

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$612.89

Record

73%

11108-4104 (15212)

forgotmydinnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$541.66

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$535.16

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

qwen300.fundCTR

Yes

Invested

$407.46

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$402.57

Record

60%

7190-4757 (11947)

VictorLudorumCTR

Yes

Invested

$329.66

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$301.95

Record

54%

6086-5288 (11374)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.02

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$246.03

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.71

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$96.09

Record

56%

3078-2437 (5515)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.3

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$81.31

Record

79%

10651-2799 (13450)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.04

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$63.27

Record

17%

1028-5005 (6033)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.14

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$45.59

Record

43%

3610-4769 (8379)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$13.34

Record

44%

4040-5234 (9274)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.29

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.22

Record

17%

221-1072 (1293)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

9289-10165 (19454)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

206h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.