Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $99 held · ends Oct 24, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$98.53
-$107.58
1¢ → 0.5¢
-52% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CoffeeDespiserCTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $135.7 | $75 | -$60.71 | 50% 870-861 (1731) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $56.24 | $18 | -$38.24 | 73% 11108-4104 (15212) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $5.51 | $2.76 | -$2.75 | 38% 2939-4714 (7653) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $5.31 | $1.7 | -$3.61 | 56% 3078-2437 (5515) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $3.06 | $0.98 | -$2.08 | 42% 1899-2623 (4522) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $0.21 | $0.07 | -$0.14 | 44% 4040-5234 (9274) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.07 | $0.02 | -$0.05 | 54% 6086-5288 (11374) |
CoffeeDespiserCTRInvested
$135.7
Value
$75
PnL
-$60.71
Record
50%
870-861 (1731)
Invested
$56.24
Value
$18
PnL
-$38.24
Record
73%
11108-4104 (15212)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$2.76
PnL
-$2.75
Record
38%
2939-4714 (7653)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$3.61
Record
56%
3078-2437 (5515)
Invested
$3.06
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$2.08
Record
42%
1899-2623 (4522)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.14
Record
44%
4040-5234 (9274)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
6086-5288 (11374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.