Consensus PnL $52K · win rate 73% (356–130, n=486) · was PM monthly #954 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$51.8K
Record
356W / 130L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 486 settled
Batting Avg
56.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#626
Source
PM monthly #954
Trades
879
Markets
621
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 7 on the consensus side (71%)- Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes $3.6K · now 90¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes $3.4K · now 75¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $2.2K · now 54¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes $2.1K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $1.0K · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes $910 · now 74¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $309 · now 83¢ · in at 87¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
562 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 91¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 1881aa's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 20% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 45% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 99% of 509)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.